Wine Drinking Is at a Sixty-Year Low. What Changes for You?

Global consumption fell to an estimated 208 million hectolitres in 2025, down from 214 the year before and lower than anything the market has seen in more than sixty years. For anyone buying a bottle rather than selling one, a shrinking market is mostly good news, with one category of exception worth knowing about.

What the numbers say

The OIV’s 2026 report covers the 2025 market, and the decline is broad rather than local. Nine of the ten largest markets shrank.

Market	2025 consumption	Change
United States	31.9 mhl	Down 4.3%
France	22 mhl	Down 3.2%
Italy	20.2 mhl	Down 9.4%
Portugal	5.6 mhl	Up 5.6%, a record
Brazil	4.4 mhl	Up 41.9%

The OIV attributes the fall to long-term structural shifts in mature markets, changing consumer behaviour and recent pressure on purchasing power. Those stack rather than compete: younger drinkers buying less alcohol overall, tighter household budgets, and a slow drift in countries where wine used to be a daily staple rather than an occasion.

What a shrinking market does to the shelf

More wine exists than there are people to drink it, and that surplus shows up in specific places.

• Discounting concentrates at the commercial end. Big-volume brands compete hardest for a shrinking pool, so the $10 to $15 shelf gets noticeably better value.
• Ranges get pruned. Retailers cut the slow half of the list, which trims obscure bottles as readily as bad ones.
• Producers pull vines. Vineyard area is contracting, and that reduces future supply of exactly the everyday wine that is cheap now.
• Packaging gets cheaper to ship. The lighter bottles arriving on shelves are part of the same cost pressure, which we covered in why wine bottles are getting lighter.

The exception is scarce wine. A small producer selling out every year is untouched by a market-wide decline, so the gap between “wine on offer” and “wine with a waiting list” keeps widening.

Where the growth actually is

Portugal setting a record while Italy drops 9.4% is the most interesting line in the report.

Brazil and Japan are growing too, and the practical consequence for a shopper is that importers follow demand. Regions selling well get more shelf space in more countries, which is a quiet argument for buying Portuguese while the wines are still priced as though nobody had noticed them.

Should you change anything?

Mostly no, but two habits pay off in this market.

Buy the everyday bottles while the surplus lasts, because the vine-pulling happening now decides what is available in three years. And if there’s a small producer you like, buy when you see them rather than assuming a shrinking market means everything will be discounted — the falling numbers describe an average that their wines were never part of.

If you want the wider generational picture behind these figures, Gen Z wine trends covers who is drinking what, and low-alcohol wine covers where some of that demand went instead.

Want to know what a bottle actually is before you stock up? Download AboutWine free on the App Store.

Frequently asked questions

How much has wine drinking actually fallen?

The OIV put world consumption at an estimated 208 million hectolitres in 2025, down 2.7% from 214 mhl in 2024. It continues a decline that has been running for several years and leaves the market at a level not seen in more than six decades. Reports differ on the exact comparison year, so treat the direction as the reliable part.

Does less demand mean cheaper wine?

Not evenly. Oversupply tends to push discounting at the commercial end where volume matters most, while good small producers making limited quantities have no reason to cut prices. Expect better deals on everyday bottles and no change at all on the ones people queue for.

Is anywhere drinking more?

Yes. Against declines in nine of the ten largest markets, Portugal hit a record 5.6 million hectolitres, Brazil rose almost 42% to 4.4 million, and Japan gained 6.8%. Growth exists, it just isn't in the places that have historically set the industry's expectations.